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High Probability Stock Picks & Portfolio Management Techniques

Our Model Portfolio is designed with the swing trader in mind. Stocks and ETFs that make it into the portfolio are typically show high probability intermediate term technical analysis based buy signals at the time of their inclusion into the portfolio. Click the 'Overview' tab to get a thorough rundown of the Model Portfolio service. Click the 'Performance' tab for a glance at recent performance of the Portfolio. Trade details of each closed positions have been provided below.

Closed Trading Positions

The following are the outcomes of past trading positions from our hypothetical model portfolio.

Legend
cntrct = options contracts
C Buy/Sell = Call Options Bought/Sold (Shorted)
P Buy/Sell = Put Options Bought/Sold (Shorted)
E.g. SPY SEP11 120 C Buy = S&P-500 SPDRs September '11 120-strike Calls Bought
Ticker Opened Closed profit ($) Profit (%age) Days in Trade Profit (Ann.)
Date # Shrs Price Date # Shrs Price
SPY SEP10 110 C Buy 11-Aug 150 cntrct 1.10 13-Sep 150 cntrct 2.92 27255  164.7%  33 1822% 
SPY AUG10 110 C Buy 26-Jul 25 cntrct 2.83 11-Aug 25 cntrct 2.02 -2025  -28.6% 16 ~
NOK 26-Jul  4150  9.35 24-Sep  4150  9.75 1660  4.3%  60 26.0% 
SPY 8-Jul 2500  106.40 12-Jul  500  107.15 1675 0.6% 6 3.83%
16-Jul  2000  107.05
TZA 28-Jun  7500  7.04 7-Jul  7500  8.50 10950  20.7%  9 841.1% 
MT 9-Jun  1400  27.80 29-Jun  1400  27.60 -280  -0.7%  20 -13.1% 
FAS 9-Jun  1750  21.62 29-Jun  1750  19.83 -3133  -8.3% 20 ~
UYM 9-Jun  1600  26.68 29-Jun  1600  25.41 -2032  -4.8%  20 -86.9% 
UBS 7-Jun  3250  12.76 20-Sep  3250  13.22 1495  3.6%  105 12.5% 
ERTS 7-Jun  2600  15.83 22-Jun  2600  15.32 -1326  -3.2% 15 -78.4%
VXX 14-May  600  25.65 21-May  600  36.00 6210  40.4% 7 2104.0% 
SPY JUN10 105 P Buy 24-May 30 cntrct 2.88 18-Jun 30 cntrct 0.00 -8640  -100.0% 25 ~
SPY JUN10 105 C Buy 21-May 30 cntrct 5.20 4-Jun 30 cntrct 5.31 330  2.1% 14 55.2% 
SPY JUN10 115 C Buy 18-May 250 cntrct 0.98 18-Jun 250 cntrct 0.00 -24600 -100.0% 31 ~
SPY MAY10 115 P Buy 11-May 25 cntrct 2.20 20-May 25 cntrct 7.00 12000  218.2% 9 8848.5% 
SPY MAY10 115 C Buy 11-May  25 cntrct 2.24 21-May 25 cntrct 0.00 -5600  -100.0% 10 ~
ESLR 20-Apr  11000 1.26 18-May  11000 0.95 -3410  -24.6% 28 ~
PALM 19-Apr 3600 5.20 10-May  3600 5.70 1800  9.6% 21 167.1%
FNM 15-Apr 11000  1.29 7-May  11000 1.04 -2750  -19.4%  22 ~ 
SPY May10 120 P Buy  27-Apr  50  cntrct 1.53 6-May  50  cntrct 5.65 20600  269.3% 9 10921%
BSX 19-Apr  2750 7.36 4-May  2750 6.65 -1953  -9.6% 15 ~
ALU  21-Apr  6000 3.44 29-Apr  6000 3.16 -1680  -8.1% 8 ~
BHI Apr10 50 C Buy  12-Apr  150 cntrct 0.37 18-Apr  150 cntrct 0.00 -5475  -100.0% 6 ~
C 17-Feb 5600 3.38 12-Apr  5600 4.63 6972 36.8%  54 249%
SPY Mar10 116 P Buy  25-Mar 200 cntrct 0.33 29-Mar  200 cntrct 0.17 -3176  -48.3% 4 ~
CWTR  26-Feb 3500 5.46 26-Mar  3500 6.99 5355 28.0% 28 365.3%
JCP 17-Feb 1450 25.76 25-Mar  1450 33.16 10730 28.7% 36 291.3%
GOOG Jun10 600 C Buy  20-Jan 6 cntrct 18.63 24-Mar 6 cntrct 8.00 -6380  -57.1% 63 ~
SPY Mar10 110 P Buy 23-Feb 60 cntrct 1.76 21-Mar  60 cntrct 0.00 -10560  -100.0% 26 ~
VZ Mar10 30 C Buy 17-Feb 165 cntrct 0.30 19-Mar  165 cntrct 0.36 990 20.0% 30 243.3% 
AMD 1-Mar 4500 8.18 19-Mar  4500 9.12 4230  11.5% 18 233.0%
DISH 17-Feb 2000 19.22 17-Mar  2000 21.24 4040 10.5% 28 137.0%
SPY Mar10 110 C Buy  23-Feb 30 cntrct 2.58 17-Mar 30 cntrct 7.18 13800   178.3% 22 2958.1%
BRCD  23-Feb 5250 5.51 24-Feb  5250 5.53 105 0.4%  1 132.5% 
SPY Feb10 112 C Buy  28-Jan 100 cntrct 1.24 21-Feb 100 cntrct 0.00 -12400  -100.0%  24 ~
TOT Feb10 65 C Buy  20-Jan 45 cntrct 0.95 21-Feb 45 cntrct 0.00 -4275  -100.0%  32 ~
SRS 25-Jan 500 40.15 17-Feb  500 38.40 -875  -4.4% 23 -69.2% 
IGT 15-Jan 2000 20.03 28-Jan  2000 19.16 -1740 -4.3% 13 ~
HLX 15-Jan 3200 12.58 27-Jan  3200 11.10 -4736  -11.8% 12 ~
ISIS 20-Jan 3500 11.02 26-Jan  3500 10.72 -1050  -2.7% 6 ~
FDX 17-Jan 5000 85.00 20-Jan  5000 84.75 -1250  -0.3% 3 -35.8%
ISIS 15-Jan  3500 11.31 19-Jan  3500 11.32 35 0.1% 4 8.1%
C  5-Jan 8000  3.51 19-Jan  8000 3.34 -1360 -4.8% 14 ~
FDX Jan10 85 C Buy  11-Jan 50 cntrct 2.75 17-Jan 50 cntrct 0.00 -13750  -100.0% 6 ~

^2010^

VCLK 28-Dec  2750 9.93 12-Jan  2750 10.07 385 1.4% 15 34.3%
AOB 21-Dec  5000 4.44 12-Jan  5000 4.53 450 2.0% 22 33.6%
RRI 23-Nov  5400 5.23 31-Dec  5400 5.73 2700 9.6% 38 91.8%
BBI  23-Nov 15000 0.67 31-Dec  15000  0.68 180 1.8% 38 17.3% 
ESLR 22-Dec  8000 1.63 31-Dec  8000 1.50 -1040  -8.0% 9 ~
TRID 23-Nov  7250 1.90 31-Dec  7250 1.90 0 0.0% 38 0.0%
BA 23-Nov  800 52.57 18-Dec  800 53.43 688 1.6% 25 23.9% 
DIA Dec09 103 P Buy  4-Dec 200 cntrct 0.68 11-Dec   200 cntrct 0.49 -3740  -27.6% 7 ~
SPY Nov09 105 C Buy  3-Nov 60 cntrct 1.85 19-Nov 60 cntrct 4.70 17100 154.1% 16 3515%
BGZ  22-Oct 12500 20.04 29-Oct  12500 20.51 5923  2.4%  7 123.3% 
ETFC 16-Oct 11000 1.76 28-Oct  11000 1.46 -3300  -17.0% 12 ~
RIMM 15-Oct  550 68.49 27-Oct  550 63.85 -2552  -6.8% 12 ~
ACI 9-Oct  1650  23.03 23-Oct  1650  24.01 1617  4.3%  14 110.9% 
TRMB 13-Oct  1750  21.97 23-Oct  1750  21.69 -490  -1.3%  10 -46.5% 
MMM Nov09 75 C Buy 13-Oct  20  cntrct 2.35 20-Oct 20  cntrct 2.45 200  4.3%  7 221.9% 
DYN 9-Oct  10000  2.49 19-Oct  10000  2.42 -700  -2.8%   10 ~
WYNN Oct09 75 C Buy 29-Sep  20 cntrct 3.50 18-Oct  20 cntrct 0.00 -7000  -100.0%  19 ~
BA Oct09 55 C Buy 29-Sep  35 cntrct 1.35 18-Oct 35 cntrct  0.00 -4725  -100.0%  19 ~
SPX Oct09 1050 C Buy 5-Oct  5 cntrct  11.00 13-Oct 5 cntrct  22.90 5950  108.2% 8 4936%
C 29-Sep  5750  4.79 2-Oct  5750  4.52 -1553  -5.6%   3 ~
XLE Jan10 55 C Buy 21-Aug  27 cntrct 2.51 1-Oct  27 cntrct 2.39 -324  -4.8%  41 -42.6% 
EMR 8-Sep  925  37.73 24-Sep  925  39.39 1536  4.4%  16 100.4% 
CBE 8-Sep  1000  34.14 24-Sep  1000  36.62 2480  7.3%  16 165.7% 
NOC Oct09 50 C Buy 8-Sep  40 cntrct 1.35 24-Sep 40 cntrct 1.95 2400    44.4% 16 1014%
GD Oct09 60 C Buy 8-Sep 25 cntrct 3.20 23-Sep  25 cntrct 3.60 1000  12.5%  15 304.2% 
WYNN Sep 09 60 C Buy 24-Aug  35 cntrct 2.14 16-Sep 35 cntrct 7.21 17775    237.8% 23 3774%
VLO Sep09 18 C Buy 21-Aug  75 cntrct  0.98 3-Sep  75 cntrct  0.61 -2775   -37.8%  13 ~
EK 8-Jun  4000  2.80 2-Sep  4000  5.21 9640  86.1%  86 365% 
TIE 24-Aug  3000  8.31 1-Sep  3000  7.90 -1230 -4.9% 8 ~
ADSK 16-Jul  1175  18.39 1-Sep  1175  22.75 5123 23.7% 47 184%
AA 16-Jul  2150  10.36 1-Sep  2150  11.64 2752 12.4% 47 96%
TEX 16-Jul  1750  12.34 1-Sep  1750  16.03 6458 29.9% 47 232%
CBS 16-Jul  3250  6.63 31-Aug  3250  10.62 12968 60.2% 46 478%
WYNN Jan10 60 C Buy 10-Aug 10 cntrct 2.65 23-Aug 10 cntrct 0.00 -2650 -100% 13 ~
WYNN Jan10 45 P Buy 27-Jul 10 cntrct 2.10 23-Aug 10 cntrct 0.00 -2100 -100% 27 ~
SPY Aug 98 P Buy 31-Jul 150 cntrct 0.98 23-Aug 150 cntrct 0.00 -14700 -100% 23 ~
SPY Aug 90 P Buy 17-Jul 90 cntrct 1.14 23-Aug cntrct 0.00 -10260 -100% 37 ~
AMR 16-Jul  5000  4.29 19-Aug  5000  4.93 3200 14.9% 34 160%
WYNN Jan10 35 C Buy 16-Jul 10 cntrct 6.40 10-Aug 10 cntrct 25.20 18800 293.8% 25 4289%
IWM Jul 51 P Buy 7-Jul  60 cntrct 2.43 13-Jul 60 cntrct 1.83 -3600 -24.7% 6 ~
GLW 9-Jun  2000  16.11 7-Jul  2000  14.35 -3520 -10.9% 28 ~
NUE 8-Jun  700  45.83 7-Jul 700  41.30 -3171 -9.9% 29 ~
SLV 11-Jun  3000  14.91 22-Jun  3000  13.75 -3480 -7.8% 11 ~
GM 20-May  8500  1.36 5-Jun  8500  0.68 -5780 -50% 16 ~
SPY Jun 90 C Buy 24-Apr 100 cntrct 2.63 1-Jun 100 cntrct 4.80 21700 82.5% 38 793%
SPY May 83 P Buy 20-Apr 80 cntrct 1.62 17-May 80 cntrct 0.00 -12960 -100% 27 1352%
SSO 1-Apr  8750  20.60 14-Apr  8750  22.14 13475 7.5% 13 210%
SPY Mar Qtrly 78 P Buy 24-Mar 100 cntrct 0.73 1-Apr 100 cntrct 0.00 -7300 100% 8 ~
FAS 26-Mar  670  33.75 30-Mar  670  27.00 -4523 -20% 4 ~
SPY 24-Mar  2000  80.84 30-Mar  2000  79.79 -2100 -1.3% 6 -79%
AA 26-Feb  2500  6.62 30-Mar  2500  7.35 1825 11% 32 126%
DRYS 16-Mar 2500 4.20 25-Mar 2500 4.68 1200 11.4% 9 464%
MTL 20-Jan  3500  3.19 24-Mar  3500  4.54 4725 42.3% 63 245%
DYN 16-Mar  5000  1.24 24-Mar  5000  1.49 1250 20.2% 8 920%
QQQQ Mar 75 P Buy 27-Feb 25 cntrct 0.72 20-Mar cntrct 0.01 -17750 -98.6% 21 ~
SPY Mar 75 P Buy 18-Mar 25 cntrct 0.37 20-Mar 25 cntrct 0.01 -9000 -97.3% 2 ~
C 23-Jan 6500 3.15 18-Mar 6500 3.42 1755 8.6% 54 58%
BAC 23-Jan 4000 5.74 13-Mar 4000 6.32 2320 10.1% 49 75%
IWM Mar 40 C Buy 4-Mar 175 cntrct 0.67 13-Mar 175 cntrct 1.06 6825 58.2% 9 2361%
S 23-Jan  8000  2.26 27-Feb  8000  2.82 4480 24.8% 35 258%
IWM Feb 42 P Buy 2-Feb 180 cntrct 0.69 20-Feb 180 cntrct 0.91 3960 31.9% 18 647%
SPY Jan 87 C Buy 15-Jan 80 cntrct 0.24 18-Jan 80 cntrct 0.00 -1920 -100% 3 ~
SPY Jan 90 P Buy 6-Jan 60 cntrct 1.32 15-Jan 60 cntrct 5.86 27240 343.9% 9 13949%

^2009^

AA 6-Oct 2500 15.53 26-Feb 2500 6.55 -22450 -57.8% 143 ~
MU 15-Dec  5000  1.88 9-Feb  5000  4.14 11300 120.2% 56 784%
ESLR 15-Dec  11250  1.71 20-Mar  11250  1.42 -3263 -17% 95 -65%
AMD 15-Dec  4500  2.19 20-Mar  4500  2.80 2745 27.9% 95 107%
UYG 17-Dec 9000 3.40 19-Mar 9000 3.09 -2790 -9.1% 92 -36%
ALU 12-Dec 10000 1.74 18-Mar 10000 1.67 -700 -4% 96 -15%
JAVA 11-Dec 30000 4.03 15-Jan 3000 3.87 -480 -4% 35 -41%
JDSU 15-Dec  2750  3.63 15-Jan  2750  3.74 303 3% 31 36%
ISIL 15-Dec 1600 9.37 12-Jan 1600 9.34 -48 -0.3% 28 -4%
SPY Dec Qtrly 85 P Buy 15-Dec 30 cntrct 1.06 1-Jan 30 cntrct 0.00 -3180 -100% 17 ~
JAVA Jan 5 C Short 11-Dec 80 cntrct 0.16 7-Jan 80 cntrct 0.25 -720 -56% 27 ~
LVS 15-Dec  1700  6.16 24-Dec  1700  5.85 -527 -5% 9 ~
SPY 9-Dec  1700  89.98 22-Dec  1700  87.30 -4556 -3% 13 -84%
SPY Dec 85 P Buy 9-Dec 25 cntrct 2.04 21-Dec 25 cntrct 0.00 -5100 -100% 12 ~
C Dec 15 C Buy 27-Oct 30 cntrct 0.84 21-Dec 30 cntrct 0.00 -2520 -100% 55 ~
SKF Jan 100 C Buy 9-Dec  3 cntrct 25.30 17-Dec 3 cntrct 21.00 -1290 -17% 8 ~
F 27-Oct  8500  1.80 4-Dec  8500  2.84 8840 57.8% 38 555%
IWM Dec 45 P Buy 28-Nov 30 cntrct 2.14 2-Dec 30 cntrct 3.20 3180 49.5% 4 4520%
GM 24-Nov  3000  3.00 2-Dec  3000  5.02 6060 67.3% 8 3072%
SPY 20-Nov  1500  79.15 25-Nov  1500  87.18 12045 10.1% 5 741%
DIA Nov 90 C Buy 15-Oct 66 cntrct 1.98 23-Nov 66 cntrct 0.00 -13068 -100% 39 ~
IWM Nov 39 C Buy 21-Nov 65 cntrct 0.24 21-Nov 65 cntrct 1.75 9815 629.2% 0.5 459292%
SPY Nov 90 P Buy 11-Nov  20 cntrct 3.50 20-Nov 20 cntrct 7.65 8300 118.6% 9 4809%
AMD 27-Oct 2750 2.97 11-Nov  2750  2.95 -55 -0.7% 15 -16%
DIA Nov 98 C Short 4-Nov 22 cntrct 2.40 10-Nov 22 cntrct 0.50 4180 79.2% 6 4816%
DIA Oct 100 C Buy 6-Oct 10 cntrct 4.10 19-Oct 10 cntrct 0.00 -4100 -100% 13 ~
CAT Oct 50 C Buy 8-Oct 15 cntrct 1.99 19-Oct 15 cntrct 0.00 -2985 -100% 11 ~
HD Oct 22.5 C Buy 8-Oct 25 cntrct 1.19 19-Oct 25 cntrct 0.00 -2975 -100% 11 ~
DIS Oct 27.5 C Buy 8-Oct 30 cntrct 0.90 19-Oct 30 cntrct 0.00 -2700 -100% 11 ~
DELL Oct 19 C Buy 15-Sep  25 cntrct 0.77 19-Oct 25 cntrct 0.00 -1925 -100% 34 ~
UTX Oct 50 C Buy 8-Oct 10 cntrct 3.50 14-Oct 10 cntrct 7.20 3700   105.7% 6 6431%
SPY 10-Oct  2000  89.29 14-Oct  2000 101.51 24440  13.7%   4 1249%
APA Oct 100 P Buy 1-Oct 8 cntrct 5.70 6-Oct 8 cntrct 20.60 11920  261.4% 5 19082%
APA Oct 100 C Buy 1-Oct 8 cntrct 6.85 19-Oct 8 cntrct 1.05 -4640  -84% 18 ~
SPY Sep 125 C Buy 23-Sep 40 cntrct 0.85 1-Oct 40 cntrct 0.00 -3400   -100% 8 ~
VLO Sep 40 C Buy 14-Aug 20 cntrct 0.52 22-Sep 20 cntrct 0.00 -1040  -100% 39 ~
SPY Sep 123 C Buy 16-Sep 50 cntrct 0.45 19-Sep 50 cntrct 4.05 18000  800% 3 97333% 
SPY Sep 120 C Buy 18-Sep 40 cntrct 0.47 19-Sep 40 cntrct 1.84 5480 291.5% 1 106394%
AMZN Sep 80 P Buy 5-Sep 20 cntrct 2.55 16-Sep 20 cntrct 2.93 750 14.7%  11 488% 
AMZN Sep 80 C Buy 5-Sep 10 cntrct 3.20 16-Sep 10 cntrct 1.55 -1650  -51.6%  11 ~
SOHU Sep 60 P Buy 5-Sep 10 cntrct 1.00 15-Sep 10 cntrct 2.00 1000  100.0% 10 3650% 
PBR Aug 45 P Buy 9-Sep  10 cntrct 4.30 9-Sep  10 cntrct 6.30 2000  46.5% 0 16977% 
PBR Aug 45 C Buy 9-Sep  25 cntrct 0.50 19-Sep 25 cntrct  2.25 4375    350.0% 10 12775%
FRE 22-Aug  1000  2.50 5-Sep   1000 5.10 2600   104.0% 14 2711.4%
DIG  20-Aug  2300  82.56 8-Sep   2300 81.56 -2300  -1.2%  19 -23.3% 
SKF 19-Aug  550  130.49 11-Sep  550 112.13 -10098 -14.1% 23 ~
SPSN 11-Aug  2500  2.60 16-Sep   2500 2.05 -1375  -21.2% 36 ~
FBR 11-Aug  2500  1.98 9-Sep   2500 1.71 -675  -13.6%  29 ~
MGI 11-Aug   2500 2.00 12-Sep  2500  1.75 -625  -12.5%  32 ~ 
PEIX 11-Aug  3500  2.04 2-Sep  3500  1.98 -210  -2.9%  22 -48.8% 
AMD  24-Jul  1500  4.55 2-Sep  1500  6.22 2505  36.7%  40 334.9% 
DVN Sep 100 C Buy 20-Aug 11 cntrct 5.40 19-Sep 11 cntrct 5.00 -440 -7.4% 30 -90.1%
PBR Aug 50 C Buy 12-Aug  10 cntrct 1.30 17-Aug